Market Commentary: October 21, 2026

Timothy A. Hoyle, Chief Investment Officer
thoyle@haverfordquality.com

Investing Beyond the Ballot

With just days until the U.S. midterm elections, it is nearly impossible to escape the political news cycle. Investors may be wondering how the rhetoric and campaign promises will impact the economic and market landscape. History reveals that politics have always been charged, biases exist, and politicians have used hyperbole to mobilize their voters. Investors should look past the short-term noise and remain focused on their longer-term investment strategies and goals. Economies and markets often exert their will on politicians, but the reverse is much less likely.

While certain political scenarios may look probable at this stage, it is difficult to gauge the full extent of the November election outcome in advance. However, election outcomes historically have had less impact on market performance than political candidates would have one believe. Regardless of the results, looking back at the last 23 midterm elections, the S&P 500 has rallied in the three-month window surrounding each election in 21 cases, with a median gain of 7%.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

Another study that looked at the 19 midterm elections since 1950 found that the S&P 500 posted positive returns in the fourth quarter of that year 16 times. The average gain was 6.6%.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

Your long-term objectives, not the next election, should help guide your investment strategy. While it can be easy to let short-term uncertainty and emotions influence decisions, consider maintaining a long-term perspective and reviewing your strategy to ensure it reflects your goals rather than possible political outcomes.