AI's dominance has resulted in an extremely narrow equity market driven by a handful of mega-cap tech names, creating concern that corrections in these stocks will drag down the broader market. However, October proved different. Although the AI trade weakened, the rest of the market finally began to carry more of the load.

With just days until the U.S. midterm elections, it is nearly impossible to escape the political news cycle. However, election results historically have had less impact on market performance than political candidates would have one believe.

The U.S. equity bull market just turned four years old. One defining characteristic of this bull market, and of growing concern to many investors, is its lack of breadth. Historically, narrow market leadership has often been viewed as a warning sign, raising concerns that the market’s foundation may be weaker than headline index returns suggest.

Investors are navigating a market environment increasingly shaped by a sequence of interconnected forces. Geopolitical tensions are keeping energy prices high. Rising energy prices are contributing to persistent inflation pressures. Elevated inflation is keeping the Fed hawkish and contributing to higher Treasury yields. But despite these headwinds, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience.

The Federal Reserve's latest rate hike was not simply about inflation. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s reputation for independence was also on the line, with some experts calling the Fed’s policy move a “credibility hike.” Without the overwhelming pressure of market expectations, would the Fed still have tightened interest rates?

Markets navigated a difficult week as oil prices surged alongside 10-year Treasury yields. Unfortunately, the view ahead also looks far from smooth sailing. We believe investors should brace for continued near-term volatility as markets confront a number of headwinds, both new and ongoing.

As the NFL season kicks off, investors are also awaiting an important play call from the Federal Reserve. At its September meeting, the Fed must decide whether recent inflation progress is sufficient to keep rates unchanged or whether a rate hike is needed. Regardless of the call, we see several fixed income themes that remain important.

The last week of August is typically reserved for holiday vacations and back-to-school prep. However, this August demanded investors’ attention as markets had no shortage of consequential news to process. Our key takeaway: the bull case, founded on capex-driven earnings growth, remains intact.