March 9, 2020 Take a Mulligan The coronavirus is a classic example of an external shock—an exogenous event that is unforecastable. Coming two months after we penned our 2020 Outlook, COVID-19 has rendered our previous near-term economic expectations void. Therefore, we are taking this opportunity for a mulligan and a revisit of our 2020 Read More →
Everyone expects noisemakers to make an appearance for New Year's Eve celebrations around the world. Throughout 2019, however, the noise seemed ceaseless. Numerous and repetitive headlines shouted crisis and clamored for attention: impeachment, protests in Hong Kong, rising income inequality, mounting national debt levels, Brexit, and labor strikes just to name a few. The U.S. Read More →
The U.S. stock market reminds us of a boxer taking blow after blow, round after round, yet still able to stand at the end of each round looking for the chance to counter-punch. Despite “punches” to the stock market like tariffs, the inverted yield curve, slower economic growth, and foreign currency pressure, the market has Read More →
The financial markets have gone for a wild ride. The S&P 500 experienced its worst December performance since the 1930s, yet the rebound during the first two months of 2019 ranks among the best starts to any year. The market’s gyrations almost always exaggerate the underlying fundamentals of businesses and the economy. This time around Read More →
Investor’s don’t lack for issues to worry about. Foremost on the list are the FOMC and trade tensions with China. Issues that are less prominent but still meaningful include the potential waning of fiscal stimulus, a weaker housing market, automobile sales, consumer and corporate credit, geopolitical risks such as Brexit, the debt ceiling, and corporate Read More →
To relatively little fanfare, the U.S. bull market, which began in March 2009, extended into August to become the longest in modern history. In recent weeks, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ index recorded all-time highs. We emphasize the lack of fanfare because this has been one of the most unloved bull markets. For Read More →
In 1978, New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett first introduced the Super Bowl indicator. His "research" concluded that a Super Bowl win for a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year. A win for a team in the National Football Conference (NFC) means the Read More →
Assembling our annual Outlook makes this time of year special for us. It allows us to reflect on the past, reminding us just how lucky we are to have a great group of clients and partners. At the same time, we are optimistic about the future, and look forward to showing you why. We hope Read More →
